In the 2008 and 2009 recession, there were a lot of factors that contributed to the downfall of the economy. Real estate and mortgage back securities were a main factor of the last recession, but being able to analyze other factors that were happening may allow us to see what will happen in a 2020 recession or 2021 recession.
If you graph the outstanding automobile non accrual loans, you will notice a steady increase from the bottom in 2005 to a max in quarter four in 2010 at an incredible 5.27 percent.
If one notices this data point and looks at the same data point today in quarter one 2019, one would notice that the non accrual automobile debt ia steadily increasing. Automobile debt is now at 4.69 percent.
Although the outstanding auto non accrual loans are still lower than in 2010, the steadily increasing trend would point to a recession in the next few years. It appears that recession like conditions are present in 2020 and 2021.
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